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Binh Duong vs Ha Noi — V.League 1 2019

Binh Duong
Binh Duong
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Ha Noi
Ha Noi
10/25/2025V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 8Sân v?n d?ng Gò Ð?u

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Binh Duong34%
×Draw25%
Ha Noi41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Binh Duong
1.31
Ha Noi
1.46

Ha Noi creates 11% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 89 away

creates per match

Binh Duong
1.45
Ha Noi
1.61

allows per match

Binh Duong
1.31
Ha Noi
1.18

finishing

Binh Duong+0.00on par
Ha Noi+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binh Duong ↓

Ha Noi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Binh Duong or draw
59%
Binh Duong or Ha Noi
75%
Draw or Ha Noi
66%

Winning margin

Binh Duong wins by 2+
15%
Ha Noi wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Binh Duong 1+ goals
73%
Binh Duong 2+ goals
38%
Binh Duong 3+ goals
14%
Ha Noi 1+ goals
77%
Ha Noi 2+ goals
43%
Ha Noi 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Binh Duong (draw refunded)
45%
Ha Noi (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binh Duong at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.31 · 86 matches

Ha Noi away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.18 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binh Duong attack 1.45 + Ha Noi defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.31

Ha Noi attack 1.61 + Binh Duong defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Binh Duong scores more
34%
level
25%
Ha Noi scores more
41%

Ha Noi at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ha Noi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 1: Binh Duong 2–3 Ha Noi

Ha Noi beat Binh Duong 3-2 in V.League 1 on October 25, 2025.

The match was played at Sân v?n d?ng Gò Ð?u in Thủ Dầu Một (Thu Dau Mot).