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Ha Noi vs Altyn Asyr — AFC Cup 2018

Ha Noi
Ha Noiadvanced
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Altyn Asyr
Altyn Asyr
8/20/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Inter-zonal Semi-finalsSân vận động Hàng Đẫy (Hang Day Stadium) (Hà Nội (Hanoi))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ha Noi65%
×Draw18%
Altyn Asyr17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ha Noi
2.43
Altyn Asyr
1.16

Ha Noi creates 109% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 21 away

creates per match

Ha Noi
3.00
Altyn Asyr
1.57

allows per match

Ha Noi
0.75
Altyn Asyr
1.86

finishing

Ha Noi+0.00on par
Altyn Asyr+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ha Noi ↓

Altyn Asyr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Ha Noi or draw
83%
Ha Noi or Altyn Asyr
82%
Draw or Altyn Asyr
35%

Winning margin

Ha Noi wins by 2+
43%
Altyn Asyr wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ha Noi 1+ goals
91%
Ha Noi 2+ goals
69%
Ha Noi 3+ goals
43%
Altyn Asyr 1+ goals
69%
Altyn Asyr 2+ goals
32%
Altyn Asyr 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ha Noi (draw refunded)
79%
Altyn Asyr (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ha Noi at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Altyn Asyr away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ha Noi attack 3.00 + Altyn Asyr defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.43

Altyn Asyr attack 1.57 + Ha Noi defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Ha Noi scores more
65%
level
18%
Altyn Asyr scores more
17%

Ha Noi at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ha Noi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Ha Noi 3–2 Altyn Asyr

Ha Noi beat Altyn Asyr 3-2 in AFC Cup on August 20, 2019.

The match was played at Sân vận động Hàng Đẫy (Hang Day Stadium) (Hà Nội (Hanoi)).