Altyn Asyr 2–2 Ha Noi: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Altyn Asyr

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Ha Noi

8/27/2019

AFC Cup · Inter-zonal Semi-finalsKöpetdag Stadium (Aşgabat (Ashgabat))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Altyn Asyr28%

×Draw24%

Ha Noi49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Altyn AsyrExpected goals in this matchHa Noi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.71

Altyn Asyr

1.23

Ha Noi

1.71

Ha Noi creates 39% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 8 away

1.47

creates per match

2.13

1.29

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Altyn Asyr

1.47

Ha Noi

2.13

allows per match

Altyn Asyr

1.29

Ha Noi

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Altyn Asyr+0.00on par

Ha Noi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altyn Asyr ↓

Ha Noi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Altyn Asyr or draw

51%

Altyn Asyr or Ha Noi

76%

Draw or Ha Noi

72%

Winning margin

Altyn Asyr wins by 2+

11%

Ha Noi wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Altyn Asyr 1+ goals

71%

Altyn Asyr 2+ goals

35%

Altyn Asyr 3+ goals

13%

Ha Noi 1+ goals

82%

Ha Noi 2+ goals

51%

Ha Noi 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Altyn Asyr (draw refunded)

36%

Ha Noi (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altyn Asyr at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Ha Noi away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altyn Asyr attack 1.47 + Ha Noi defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ha Noi attack 2.13 + Altyn Asyr defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Altyn Asyr scores more

28%

level

24%

Ha Noi scores more

49%

Ha Noi at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ha Noi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff