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H&W Welders vs Portadown — Friendlies Clubs 2026

H&W Welders
H&W Welders
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Portadown
Portadown
A. Obhakhan 48'
R. Breen 33'
7/21/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

H&W Welders31%
×Draw22%
Portadown47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

H&W Welders
1.54
Portadown
1.95

Portadown creates 27% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

creates per match

H&W Welders
1.80
Portadown
1.79

allows per match

H&W Welders
2.10
Portadown
1.29

finishing

H&W Welders+0.00on par
Portadown+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

H&W Welders ↓

Portadown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

H&W Welders or draw
53%
H&W Welders or Portadown
78%
Draw or Portadown
69%

Winning margin

H&W Welders wins by 2+
14%
Portadown wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

H&W Welders 1+ goals
79%
H&W Welders 2+ goals
45%
H&W Welders 3+ goals
20%
Portadown 1+ goals
86%
Portadown 2+ goals
58%
Portadown 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

H&W Welders (draw refunded)
39%
Portadown (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

H&W Welders at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

Portadown away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

H&W Welders attack 1.80 + Portadown defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.54

Portadown attack 1.79 + H&W Welders defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

H&W Welders scores more
31%
level
22%
Portadown scores more
47%

Portadown at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Portadown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
R. Breen
48'
A. Obhakhan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: H&W Welders vs Portadown

Portadown beat H&W Welders 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 21, 2026.

Goals: R. Breen (33'), A. Obhakhan (48').