H&W Welders 2–3 Dergview: Result & Stats

H&W Welders

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Dergview

Unknown 31'

A. Finnegan 21'

Unknown 90+5', 57'

G. Harkin 6'

8/19/2023

League #407 · Round 3Blanchflower Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

H&W Welders67%

×Draw17%

Dergview16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

H&W WeldersExpected goals in this matchDergview

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.60

1.21

H&W Welders

2.60

Dergview

1.21

H&W Welders creates 115% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

2.63

creates per match

1.00

1.42

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

H&W Welders

2.63

Dergview

1.00

allows per match

H&W Welders

1.42

Dergview

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

H&W Welders+0.00on par

Dergview+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

H&W Welders ↓

Dergview →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

H&W Welders or draw

84%

H&W Welders or Dergview

83%

Draw or Dergview

33%

Winning margin

H&W Welders wins by 2+

45%

Dergview wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

H&W Welders 1+ goals

92%

H&W Welders 2+ goals

73%

H&W Welders 3+ goals

47%

Dergview 1+ goals

70%

Dergview 2+ goals

34%

Dergview 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

H&W Welders (draw refunded)

81%

Dergview (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

H&W Welders at home — creates 2.63, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Dergview away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

H&W Welders attack 2.63 + Dergview defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.60

Dergview attack 1.00 + H&W Welders defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

H&W Welders scores more

67%

level

17%

Dergview scores more

16%

H&W Welders at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "H&W Welders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

G. Harkin

21'

A. Finnegan

31'

57'

90+5'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff