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Dergview vs H&W Welders — League #407 2026

Dergview
Dergview
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
H&W Welders
H&W Welders
K. Owens 87'
M. Ferguson 74', 51'
T. O'Connor 58', 13'
2/3/2024League #407League #407 · Round 19Darragh Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dergview26%
×Draw22%
H&W Welders52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dergview
1.33
H&W Welders
1.94

H&W Welders creates 46% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 19 away

creates per match

Dergview
0.93
H&W Welders
2.16

allows per match

Dergview
1.71
H&W Welders
1.74

finishing

Dergview+0.00on par
H&W Welders+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dergview ↓

H&W Welders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Dergview or draw
48%
Dergview or H&W Welders
78%
Draw or H&W Welders
74%

Winning margin

Dergview wins by 2+
11%
H&W Welders wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Dergview 1+ goals
74%
Dergview 2+ goals
38%
Dergview 3+ goals
15%
H&W Welders 1+ goals
86%
H&W Welders 2+ goals
58%
H&W Welders 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Dergview (draw refunded)
34%
H&W Welders (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dergview at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

H&W Welders away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dergview attack 0.93 + H&W Welders defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.33

H&W Welders attack 2.16 + Dergview defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dergview scores more
26%
level
22%
H&W Welders scores more
52%

H&W Welders at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "H&W Welders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
T. O'Connor
51'
M. Ferguson
58'
T. O'Connor
74'
M. Ferguson
87'
K. Owens

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #407: Dergview 0–5 H&W Welders

H&W Welders beat Dergview 5-0 in League #407 on February 3, 2024.

Goals: T. O'Connor (13', 58'), M. Ferguson (51', 74'), K. Owens (87').

The match was played at Darragh Park in Castlederg.