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H&W Welders vs Armagh City — League #407 2026

H&W Welders
H&W Welders
Preview
14:00
Armagh City
Armagh City
8/15/2026League #407League #407 · Round 3
Big match
71%
H&W Welders
model favours
71%16%14%

H&W Welders score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
77%
over 2.5 goals
67%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

H&W Welders71%
×Draw16%
Armagh City14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

H&W Welders
2.88
Armagh City
1.23

H&W Welders creates 134% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

creates per match

H&W Welders
2.82
Armagh City
1.00

allows per match

H&W Welders
1.47
Armagh City
2.94

finishing

H&W Welders+0.00on par
Armagh City+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

H&W Welders ↓

Armagh City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

H&W Welders or draw
86%
H&W Welders or Armagh City
84%
Draw or Armagh City
29%

Winning margin

H&W Welders wins by 2+
50%
Armagh City wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

H&W Welders 1+ goals
94%
H&W Welders 2+ goals
78%
H&W Welders 3+ goals
54%
Armagh City 1+ goals
71%
Armagh City 2+ goals
35%
Armagh City 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

H&W Welders (draw refunded)
84%
Armagh City (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

H&W Welders at home — creates 2.82, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Armagh City away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

H&W Welders attack 2.82 + Armagh City defence 2.94 → ÷2 → 2.88

Armagh City attack 1.00 + H&W Welders defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

H&W Welders scores more
71%
level
16%
Armagh City scores more
14%

H&W Welders at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "H&W Welders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both sides lean high-scoring (73% and 80% over 2.5)
  • 80% of Armagh City’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 73% of H&W Welders’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 5.4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Welders
LLWDW
City
LLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

H&W Welders vs Armagh City — Match Preview

H&W Welders face Armagh City on August 15, 2026 in this League #407 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.