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Armagh City vs H&W Welders — League #407 2026

Armagh City
Armagh City
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
H&W Welders
H&W Welders
E. Jordan 90+8'
C. Mullen 60'
I. Rutkowski 2'
T. O'Connor 54', 12', 10'
1/11/2025League #407League #407 · Round 24Holm Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Armagh City28%
×Draw20%
H&W Welders53%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Armagh City
1.73
H&W Welders
2.41

H&W Welders creates 39% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 19 away

creates per match

Armagh City
1.71
H&W Welders
2.16

allows per match

Armagh City
2.65
H&W Welders
1.74

finishing

Armagh City+0.00on par
H&W Welders+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armagh City ↓

H&W Welders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Armagh City or draw
47%
Armagh City or H&W Welders
80%
Draw or H&W Welders
72%

Winning margin

Armagh City wins by 2+
13%
H&W Welders wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Armagh City 1+ goals
82%
Armagh City 2+ goals
52%
Armagh City 3+ goals
25%
H&W Welders 1+ goals
91%
H&W Welders 2+ goals
69%
H&W Welders 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Armagh City (draw refunded)
35%
H&W Welders (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armagh City at home — creates 1.71, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

H&W Welders away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armagh City attack 1.71 + H&W Welders defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.73

H&W Welders attack 2.16 + Armagh City defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Armagh City scores more
28%
level
20%
H&W Welders scores more
53%

H&W Welders at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "H&W Welders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
I. Rutkowski
10'
T. O'Connor
12'
T. O'Connor
54'
T. O'Connor
60'
C. Mullen
90+8'
E. Jordan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Armagh City vs H&W Welders

Armagh City and H&W Welders drew 3-3 in League #407 on January 11, 2025.

Goals: I. Rutkowski (2'), T. O'Connor (10', 12', 54'), C. Mullen (60'), E. Jordan (90+8').

The match was played at Holm Park in Armagh.