H&W Welders 3–0 Armagh City: Result & Stats

H&W Welders

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Armagh City

B. Healy 57', 51'

E. McCoubrey 43'

8/9/2025

League #407 · Round 1Blanchflower Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

H&W Welders71%

×Draw16%

Armagh City13%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

H&W WeldersExpected goals in this matchArmagh City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.85

1.18

H&W Welders

2.85

Armagh City

1.18

H&W Welders creates 142% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

2.63

creates per match

0.93

1.42

allows per match

3.07

creates per match

H&W Welders

2.63

Armagh City

0.93

allows per match

H&W Welders

1.42

Armagh City

3.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

H&W Welders+0.00on par

Armagh City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

H&W Welders ↓

Armagh City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

H&W Welders or draw

87%

H&W Welders or Armagh City

84%

Draw or Armagh City

29%

Winning margin

H&W Welders wins by 2+

51%

Armagh City wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

H&W Welders 1+ goals

94%

H&W Welders 2+ goals

77%

H&W Welders 3+ goals

53%

Armagh City 1+ goals

69%

Armagh City 2+ goals

33%

Armagh City 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

H&W Welders (draw refunded)

84%

Armagh City (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

H&W Welders at home — creates 2.63, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Armagh City away — creates 0.93, concedes 3.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

H&W Welders attack 2.63 + Armagh City defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.85

Armagh City attack 0.93 + H&W Welders defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

H&W Welders scores more

71%

level

16%

Armagh City scores more

13%

H&W Welders at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "H&W Welders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

E. McCoubrey

51'

B. Healy

57'

B. Healy

H&W

Armagh

Manager: P. Kee

Manager: S. Campbell