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Hødd II vs Floro — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Hødd II
Hødd II
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Floro
Floro
O. Aske 58'
K. Liset 80'
L. Lotefa 66'
Nelsinho 52', 10'
E. Hovland 14'
7/16/20223. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 15Nye Høddvoll Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Hødd II43%
×Draw21%
Floro36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hødd II
2.16
Floro
1.96

Hødd II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Hødd II
2.12
Floro
1.50

allows per match

Hødd II
2.42
Floro
2.19

finishing

Hødd II+0.00on par
Floro+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hødd II ↓

Floro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Hødd II or draw
64%
Hødd II or Floro
79%
Draw or Floro
57%

Winning margin

Hødd II wins by 2+
25%
Floro wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Hødd II 1+ goals
88%
Hødd II 2+ goals
63%
Hødd II 3+ goals
36%
Floro 1+ goals
86%
Floro 2+ goals
58%
Floro 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Hødd II (draw refunded)
55%
Floro (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hødd II at home — creates 2.12, concedes 2.42 · 26 matches

Floro away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.19 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hødd II attack 2.12 + Floro defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.16

Floro attack 1.50 + Hødd II defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hødd II scores more
43%
level
21%
Floro scores more
36%

Hødd II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hødd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
Nelsinho
14'
E. Hovland
52'
Nelsinho
58'
O. Aske
66'
L. Lotefa
80'
K. Liset

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hødd II 1 – 5 Floro

Floro beat Hødd II 5-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on July 16, 2022.

Goals: Nelsinho (10', 52'), E. Hovland (14'), O. Aske (58'), L. Lotefa (66'), K. Liset (80').

The match was played at Nye Høddvoll Stadion in Ulsteinvik.