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Floro vs Hødd II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Floro
Floro
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Hødd II
Hødd II
4/10/20223. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 1Florø kunstgras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Floro58%
×Draw19%
Hødd II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Floro
2.50
Hødd II
1.54

Floro creates 62% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Floro
2.12
Hødd II
1.73

allows per match

Floro
1.35
Hødd II
2.88

finishing

Floro+0.00on par
Hødd II+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Floro ↓

Hødd II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Floro or draw
77%
Floro or Hødd II
81%
Draw or Hødd II
42%

Winning margin

Floro wins by 2+
37%
Hødd II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Floro 1+ goals
92%
Floro 2+ goals
71%
Floro 3+ goals
45%
Hødd II 1+ goals
79%
Hødd II 2+ goals
45%
Hødd II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Floro (draw refunded)
72%
Hødd II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Floro at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

Hødd II away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Floro attack 2.12 + Hødd II defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.50

Hødd II attack 1.73 + Floro defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Floro scores more
58%
level
19%
Hødd II scores more
23%

Floro at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Floro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Floro vs Hødd II

Floro beat Hødd II 4-3 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Florø kunstgras in Florø.