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Gzira United vs FK Ventspils — UEFA Europa League 2018

Gzira United
Gzira United
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
FK Ventspils
FK Ventspils
8/1/2019UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · 2nd Qualifying RoundTa'Qali National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gzira United50%
×Draw22%
FK Ventspils27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gzira United
1.90
FK Ventspils
1.35

Gzira United creates 41% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Gzira United
1.00
FK Ventspils
1.20

allows per match

Gzira United
1.50
FK Ventspils
2.80

finishing

Gzira United+0.00on par
FK Ventspils+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gzira United ↓

FK Ventspils →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Gzira United or draw
73%
Gzira United or FK Ventspils
78%
Draw or FK Ventspils
50%

Winning margin

Gzira United wins by 2+
28%
FK Ventspils wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gzira United 1+ goals
85%
Gzira United 2+ goals
56%
Gzira United 3+ goals
29%
FK Ventspils 1+ goals
74%
FK Ventspils 2+ goals
39%
FK Ventspils 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Gzira United (draw refunded)
65%
FK Ventspils (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gzira United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

FK Ventspils away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gzira United attack 1.00 + FK Ventspils defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

FK Ventspils attack 1.20 + Gzira United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gzira United scores more
50%
level
22%
FK Ventspils scores more
27%

Gzira United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gzira United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gzira United vs FK Ventspils

Gzira United and FK Ventspils drew 2-2 in UEFA Europa League on August 1, 2019.

The match was played at Ta'Qali National Stadium in Ta'Qali.