FK Ventspils 4–0 Gzira United: Result & Stats

FK Ventspils

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Gzira United

7/25/2019

UEFA Europa League · 2nd Qualifying RoundOlimpiskā centra Ventspils Stadionā

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FK Ventspils57%

×Draw20%

Gzira United23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK VentspilsExpected goals in this matchGzira United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.34

FK Ventspils

2.20

Gzira United

1.34

FK Ventspils creates 64% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

2.14

creates per match

1.25

1.43

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

FK Ventspils

2.14

Gzira United

1.25

allows per match

FK Ventspils

1.43

Gzira United

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Ventspils+0.00on par

Gzira United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Ventspils ↓

Gzira United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

FK Ventspils or draw

77%

FK Ventspils or Gzira United

80%

Draw or Gzira United

43%

Winning margin

FK Ventspils wins by 2+

35%

Gzira United wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FK Ventspils 1+ goals

89%

FK Ventspils 2+ goals

64%

FK Ventspils 3+ goals

37%

Gzira United 1+ goals

74%

Gzira United 2+ goals

39%

Gzira United 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FK Ventspils (draw refunded)

71%

Gzira United (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Ventspils at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Gzira United away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Ventspils attack 2.14 + Gzira United defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.20

Gzira United attack 1.25 + FK Ventspils defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

FK Ventspils scores more

57%

level

20%

Gzira United scores more

23%

FK Ventspils at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "FK Ventspils will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff