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Gyori ETO FC vs AIK Stockholm — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Gyori ETO FC
Gyori ETO FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm
A. Csongvai 60' (OG)
Z. Gavric 34'
8/14/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundETO Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gyori ETO FC68%
×Draw19%
AIK Stockholm13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyori ETO FC
2.17
AIK Stockholm
0.83

Gyori ETO FC creates 161% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Gyori ETO FC
2.33
AIK Stockholm
1.00

allows per match

Gyori ETO FC
0.67
AIK Stockholm
2.00

finishing

Gyori ETO FC+0.00on par
AIK Stockholm+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyori ETO FC ↓

AIK Stockholm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gyori ETO FC or draw
87%
Gyori ETO FC or AIK Stockholm
81%
Draw or AIK Stockholm
32%

Winning margin

Gyori ETO FC wins by 2+
44%
AIK Stockholm wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Gyori ETO FC 1+ goals
89%
Gyori ETO FC 2+ goals
64%
Gyori ETO FC 3+ goals
36%
AIK Stockholm 1+ goals
56%
AIK Stockholm 2+ goals
20%
AIK Stockholm 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gyori ETO FC (draw refunded)
84%
AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyori ETO FC at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

AIK Stockholm away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyori ETO FC attack 2.33 + AIK Stockholm defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

AIK Stockholm attack 1.00 + Gyori ETO FC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Gyori ETO FC scores more
68%
level
19%
AIK Stockholm scores more
13%

Gyori ETO FC at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Gyori ETO FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99
S. PetrasAIK StockholmAIK Stockholm
9.9

Match Events

21'
Milán Vitális
34'
Z. Gavric↳ D. Stefulj
40'
Dino Beširović
43'
Mads Thychosen
45+1'
Paul Anton
50'
Márk Csinger
54'
Ahmed Nadhir Benbouali
60'
A. CsongvaiOwn goal
71'
J. Hove← T. Ayari
71'
J. Guidetti← E. Flataker
71'
A. Ali← B. Celina
78'
E. Edh← M. Thychosen
80'
R. Toth← P. Anton
80'
K. Banati← Z. Gavric
86'
D. Boldor← S. Ouro
87'
A. Fesshaie← B. Tiedemann
90+4'
O. Pyshchur← C. Bumba

Possession

45%Gyori

Shots

17Gyori

Pass accuracy

51%Gyori

Statistics

GyoriAIK
Overview
45%Possession55%
17Total Shots12
7Corners8
11Fouls15
Shots
17Total Shots12
5On Target6
8Off Target2
4Blocked4
9Inside Box8
8Outside Box4
Passing
45%Possession55%
261Total Passes323
176Accurate Passes211
67%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
6Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls15
4Yellow Cards2
1Offsides3

UEFA Europa Conference League: Gyori ETO FC 2–0 AIK Stockholm

Gyori ETO FC beat AIK Stockholm 2-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 14, 2025.

Goals: Z. Gavric (34'), A. Csongvai (60' o.g.).

AIK Stockholm controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 17.

The match was played at ETO Park in Gyor.