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AIK Stockholm vs Gyori ETO FC — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Gyori ETO FC
Gyori ETO FC
B. Celina 21'
D. Besirovic 7'
M. Vitalis 79'
8/7/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundStrawberry Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

AIK Stockholm70%
×Draw19%
Gyori ETO FC11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AIK Stockholm
2.13
Gyori ETO FC
0.71

AIK Stockholm creates 200% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

AIK Stockholm
2.25
Gyori ETO FC
0.67

allows per match

AIK Stockholm
0.75
Gyori ETO FC
2.00

finishing

AIK Stockholm+0.00on par
Gyori ETO FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK Stockholm ↓

Gyori ETO FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

AIK Stockholm or draw
89%
AIK Stockholm or Gyori ETO FC
81%
Draw or Gyori ETO FC
30%

Winning margin

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+
45%
Gyori ETO FC wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals
88%
AIK Stockholm 2+ goals
63%
AIK Stockholm 3+ goals
35%
Gyori ETO FC 1+ goals
51%
Gyori ETO FC 2+ goals
16%
Gyori ETO FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)
86%
Gyori ETO FC (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK Stockholm at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Gyori ETO FC away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK Stockholm attack 2.25 + Gyori ETO FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Gyori ETO FC attack 0.67 + AIK Stockholm defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

AIK Stockholm scores more
70%
level
19%
Gyori ETO FC scores more
11%

AIK Stockholm at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
B. CelinaAIK StockholmAIK Stockholm · F
8.2

Match Events

7'
D. Besirovic↳ E. Flataker
21'
B. Celina
46'
S. Vladoiu← K. Banati
61'
M. Vitalis← C. Bumba
67'
T. Isherwood← B. Tiedemann
67'
T. Ayari← A. Ali
73'
Sotirios Papagiannopoulos
79'
M. Vitalis
81'
J. Hove← B. Celina
81'
J. Guidetti← E. Flataker
86'
D. Boldor← A. Abrahamsson
90+2'
O. Pyshchur← S. Ouro

Possession

31%AIK

Shots

16AIK

Pass accuracy

43%AIK

Statistics

AIKGyori
Overview
31%Possession69%
16Total Shots17
5Corners6
12Fouls8
Shots
16Total Shots17
7On Target4
4Off Target5
5Blocked8
10Inside Box10
6Outside Box7
Passing
31%Possession69%
248Total Passes579
157Accurate Passes472
63%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls8
1Yellow Cards0
4Offsides2

Match Recap: AIK Stockholm vs Gyori ETO FC

AIK Stockholm beat Gyori ETO FC 2-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 7, 2025.

Goals: D. Besirovic (7'), B. Celina (21'), M. Vitalis (79').

Gyori ETO FC controlled possession (69%) and registered 17 shots to 16.

The match was played at Strawberry Arena in Solna.