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Gyöngyös vs Cigand SE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Gyöngyös
Gyöngyös
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Cigand SE
Cigand SE
11/18/2023NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 16Kömlei Károly Városi Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Gyöngyös28%
×Draw23%
Cigand SE50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyöngyös
1.35
Cigand SE
1.87

Cigand SE creates 39% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 45 away

creates per match

Gyöngyös
1.33
Cigand SE
1.58

allows per match

Gyöngyös
2.16
Cigand SE
1.38

finishing

Gyöngyös+0.00on par
Cigand SE+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyöngyös ↓

Cigand SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Gyöngyös or draw
50%
Gyöngyös or Cigand SE
77%
Draw or Cigand SE
72%

Winning margin

Gyöngyös wins by 2+
12%
Cigand SE wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Gyöngyös 1+ goals
74%
Gyöngyös 2+ goals
39%
Gyöngyös 3+ goals
15%
Cigand SE 1+ goals
85%
Cigand SE 2+ goals
56%
Cigand SE 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Gyöngyös (draw refunded)
36%
Cigand SE (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyöngyös at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.16 · 43 matches

Cigand SE away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.38 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyöngyös attack 1.33 + Cigand SE defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Cigand SE attack 1.58 + Gyöngyös defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gyöngyös scores more
28%
level
23%
Cigand SE scores more
50%

Cigand SE at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cigand SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Gyöngyös 0–3 Cigand SE

Cigand SE beat Gyöngyös 3-0 in NB III - Northeast on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Kömlei Károly Városi Sporttelep in Gyöngyös.