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Cigand SE vs Gyöngyös — NB III - Northeast 2019

Cigand SE
Cigand SE
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gyöngyös
Gyöngyös
7/30/2023NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 1Cigánd Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Cigand SE67%
×Draw19%
Gyöngyös14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cigand SE
2.19
Gyöngyös
0.88

Cigand SE creates 149% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 43 away

creates per match

Cigand SE
1.98
Gyöngyös
1.14

allows per match

Cigand SE
0.62
Gyöngyös
2.40

finishing

Cigand SE+0.00on par
Gyöngyös+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cigand SE ↓

Gyöngyös →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Cigand SE or draw
86%
Cigand SE or Gyöngyös
81%
Draw or Gyöngyös
33%

Winning margin

Cigand SE wins by 2+
43%
Gyöngyös wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Cigand SE 1+ goals
89%
Cigand SE 2+ goals
64%
Cigand SE 3+ goals
37%
Gyöngyös 1+ goals
59%
Gyöngyös 2+ goals
22%
Gyöngyös 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cigand SE (draw refunded)
83%
Gyöngyös (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cigand SE at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.62 · 45 matches

Gyöngyös away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cigand SE attack 1.98 + Gyöngyös defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.19

Gyöngyös attack 1.14 + Cigand SE defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Cigand SE scores more
67%
level
19%
Gyöngyös scores more
14%

Cigand SE at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Cigand SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Cigand SE 2–1 Gyöngyös

Cigand SE beat Gyöngyös 2-1 in NB III - Northeast on July 30, 2023.

The match was played at Cigánd Városi Stadion in Cigánd.