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Gyirmót II vs Gyori ETO II — NB III - Northwest 2019

Gyirmót II
Gyirmót II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Gyori ETO II
Gyori ETO II
10/29/2023NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 13Alcufer Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Gyirmót II44%
×Draw21%
Gyori ETO II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyirmót II
2.05
Gyori ETO II
1.83

Gyirmót II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Gyirmót II
2.23
Gyori ETO II
1.60

allows per match

Gyirmót II
2.07
Gyori ETO II
1.87

finishing

Gyirmót II+0.00on par
Gyori ETO II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyirmót II ↓

Gyori ETO II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Gyirmót II or draw
65%
Gyirmót II or Gyori ETO II
79%
Draw or Gyori ETO II
56%

Winning margin

Gyirmót II wins by 2+
24%
Gyori ETO II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Gyirmót II 1+ goals
87%
Gyirmót II 2+ goals
61%
Gyirmót II 3+ goals
33%
Gyori ETO II 1+ goals
84%
Gyori ETO II 2+ goals
54%
Gyori ETO II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Gyirmót II (draw refunded)
55%
Gyori ETO II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyirmót II at home — creates 2.23, concedes 2.07 · 30 matches

Gyori ETO II away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.87 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyirmót II attack 2.23 + Gyori ETO II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.05

Gyori ETO II attack 1.60 + Gyirmót II defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gyirmót II scores more
44%
level
21%
Gyori ETO II scores more
35%

Gyirmót II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gyirmót II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northwest: Gyirmót II 2–2 Gyori ETO II

Gyirmót II and Gyori ETO II drew 2-2 in NB III - Northwest on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Alcufer Stadion in Győr.