Gyirmót II 4–2 Gyori ETO II: Result & Stats

Gyirmót II

FT

4 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Gyori ETO II

5/7/2023

NB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 36Alcufer Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Gyirmót II37%

×Draw24%

Gyori ETO II39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gyirmót IIExpected goals in this matchGyori ETO II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.60

Gyirmót II

1.55

Gyori ETO II

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.71

creates per match

1.32

1.87

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Gyirmót II

1.71

Gyori ETO II

1.32

allows per match

Gyirmót II

1.87

Gyori ETO II

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gyirmót II+0.00on par

Gyori ETO II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyirmót II ↓

Gyori ETO II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Gyirmót II or draw

61%

Gyirmót II or Gyori ETO II

76%

Draw or Gyori ETO II

63%

Winning margin

Gyirmót II wins by 2+

18%

Gyori ETO II wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Gyirmót II 1+ goals

79%

Gyirmót II 2+ goals

46%

Gyirmót II 3+ goals

20%

Gyori ETO II 1+ goals

80%

Gyori ETO II 2+ goals

47%

Gyori ETO II 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Gyirmót II (draw refunded)

49%

Gyori ETO II (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyirmót II at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.87 · 38 matches

Gyori ETO II away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyirmót II attack 1.71 + Gyori ETO II defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.55

Gyori ETO II attack 1.32 + Gyirmót II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gyirmót II scores more

37%

level

24%

Gyori ETO II scores more

39%

Gyori ETO II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gyori ETO II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff