Gyeongnam FC 1–4 Bucheon FC 1995: Result & Stats

Gyeongnam FC

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Bucheon FC 1995

9/15/2024

K League 2 · Round 30Changwon Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Gyeongnam FC39%

×Draw26%

Bucheon FC 199535%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gyeongnam FCExpected goals in this matchBucheon FC 1995

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.28

Gyeongnam FC

1.38

Bucheon FC 1995

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 146 away

1.34

creates per match

1.16

1.40

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Gyeongnam FC

1.34

Bucheon FC 1995

1.16

allows per match

Gyeongnam FC

1.40

Bucheon FC 1995

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gyeongnam FC+0.00on par

Bucheon FC 1995+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyeongnam FC ↓

Bucheon FC 1995 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Gyeongnam FC or draw

65%

Gyeongnam FC or Bucheon FC 1995

74%

Draw or Bucheon FC 1995

61%

Winning margin

Gyeongnam FC wins by 2+

18%

Bucheon FC 1995 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Gyeongnam FC 1+ goals

75%

Gyeongnam FC 2+ goals

40%

Gyeongnam FC 3+ goals

16%

Bucheon FC 1995 1+ goals

72%

Bucheon FC 1995 2+ goals

37%

Bucheon FC 1995 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Gyeongnam FC (draw refunded)

53%

Bucheon FC 1995 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyeongnam FC at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.40 · 119 matches

Bucheon FC 1995 away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.41 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyeongnam FC attack 1.34 + Bucheon FC 1995 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.38

Bucheon FC 1995 attack 1.16 + Gyeongnam FC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gyeongnam FC scores more

39%

level

26%

Bucheon FC 1995 scores more

35%

Gyeongnam FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gyeongnam FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff