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Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gyeongnam FC — K League 2 2026

Bucheon FC 1995
Bucheon FC 1995
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Gyeongnam FC
Gyeongnam FC
6/28/2025K League 2K League 2 · Round 18Bucheon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Bucheon FC 199540%
×Draw27%
Gyeongnam FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bucheon FC 1995
1.31
Gyeongnam FC
1.16

Bucheon FC 1995 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 117 away

creates per match

Bucheon FC 1995
1.18
Gyeongnam FC
1.20

allows per match

Bucheon FC 1995
1.12
Gyeongnam FC
1.44

finishing

Bucheon FC 1995+0.00on par
Gyeongnam FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucheon FC 1995 ↓

Gyeongnam FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bucheon FC 1995 or draw
67%
Bucheon FC 1995 or Gyeongnam FC
73%
Draw or Gyeongnam FC
60%

Winning margin

Bucheon FC 1995 wins by 2+
18%
Gyeongnam FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bucheon FC 1995 1+ goals
73%
Bucheon FC 1995 2+ goals
38%
Bucheon FC 1995 3+ goals
14%
Gyeongnam FC 1+ goals
69%
Gyeongnam FC 2+ goals
32%
Gyeongnam FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bucheon FC 1995 (draw refunded)
55%
Gyeongnam FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucheon FC 1995 at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.12 · 144 matches

Gyeongnam FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.44 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucheon FC 1995 attack 1.18 + Gyeongnam FC defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.31

Gyeongnam FC attack 1.20 + Bucheon FC 1995 defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bucheon FC 1995 scores more
40%
level
27%
Gyeongnam FC scores more
33%

Bucheon FC 1995 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bucheon FC 1995 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 2: Bucheon FC 1995 2–0 Gyeongnam FC

Bucheon FC 1995 beat Gyeongnam FC 2-0 in K League 2 on June 28, 2025.

The match was played at Bucheon Stadium in Bucheon.