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Gyeongnam FC vs Ansan Greeners — K League 2 2026

Gyeongnam FC
Gyeongnam FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ansan Greeners
Ansan Greeners
7/5/2025K League 2K League 2 · Round 19Changwon Football Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Gyeongnam FC42%
×Draw26%
Ansan Greeners32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyeongnam FC
1.41
Ansan Greeners
1.19

Gyeongnam FC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 148 away

creates per match

Gyeongnam FC
1.34
Ansan Greeners
0.99

allows per match

Gyeongnam FC
1.40
Ansan Greeners
1.47

finishing

Gyeongnam FC+0.00on par
Ansan Greeners+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyeongnam FC ↓

Ansan Greeners →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Gyeongnam FC or draw
68%
Gyeongnam FC or Ansan Greeners
74%
Draw or Ansan Greeners
58%

Winning margin

Gyeongnam FC wins by 2+
20%
Ansan Greeners wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gyeongnam FC 1+ goals
76%
Gyeongnam FC 2+ goals
41%
Gyeongnam FC 3+ goals
17%
Ansan Greeners 1+ goals
70%
Ansan Greeners 2+ goals
33%
Ansan Greeners 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gyeongnam FC (draw refunded)
57%
Ansan Greeners (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyeongnam FC at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.40 · 119 matches

Ansan Greeners away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.47 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyeongnam FC attack 1.34 + Ansan Greeners defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.41

Ansan Greeners attack 0.99 + Gyeongnam FC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gyeongnam FC scores more
42%
level
26%
Ansan Greeners scores more
32%

Gyeongnam FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gyeongnam FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 2: Gyeongnam FC 1–1 Ansan Greeners

Gyeongnam FC and Ansan Greeners drew 1-1 in K League 2 on July 5, 2025.

The match was played at Changwon Football Centre Stadium in Changwon.