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Ansan Greeners vs Gyeongnam FC — K League 2 2026

Ansan Greeners
Ansan Greeners
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Gyeongnam FC
Gyeongnam FC
3/28/2026K League 2K League 2 · Round 5Ansan WA Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Ansan Greeners34%
×Draw27%
Gyeongnam FC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ansan Greeners
1.21
Gyeongnam FC
1.34

Gyeongnam FC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 154 home / 117 away

creates per match

Ansan Greeners
0.99
Gyeongnam FC
1.20

allows per match

Ansan Greeners
1.48
Gyeongnam FC
1.44

finishing

Ansan Greeners+0.00on par
Gyeongnam FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ansan Greeners ↓

Gyeongnam FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ansan Greeners or draw
60%
Ansan Greeners or Gyeongnam FC
73%
Draw or Gyeongnam FC
66%

Winning margin

Ansan Greeners wins by 2+
14%
Gyeongnam FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ansan Greeners 1+ goals
70%
Ansan Greeners 2+ goals
34%
Ansan Greeners 3+ goals
12%
Gyeongnam FC 1+ goals
74%
Gyeongnam FC 2+ goals
39%
Gyeongnam FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ansan Greeners (draw refunded)
46%
Gyeongnam FC (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ansan Greeners at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.48 · 154 matches

Gyeongnam FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.44 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ansan Greeners attack 0.99 + Gyeongnam FC defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.21

Gyeongnam FC attack 1.20 + Ansan Greeners defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ansan Greeners scores more
34%
level
27%
Gyeongnam FC scores more
40%

Gyeongnam FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gyeongnam FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 2: Ansan Greeners 1–1 Gyeongnam FC

Ansan Greeners and Gyeongnam FC drew 1-1 in K League 2 on March 28, 2026.

The match was played at Ansan WA Stadium in Ansan.