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Gyeongju Citizen vs Chuncheon — K3 League 2026

Gyeongju Citizen
Gyeongju Citizen
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chuncheon
Chuncheon
5/30/2020K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 3Gyeongju Citizen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Gyeongju Citizen30%
×Draw28%
Chuncheon42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyeongju Citizen
1.02
Chuncheon
1.26

Chuncheon creates 24% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 50 away

creates per match

Gyeongju Citizen
0.60
Chuncheon
0.92

allows per match

Gyeongju Citizen
1.60
Chuncheon
1.44

finishing

Gyeongju Citizen+0.00on par
Chuncheon+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyeongju Citizen ↓

Chuncheon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Gyeongju Citizen or draw
58%
Gyeongju Citizen or Chuncheon
72%
Draw or Chuncheon
70%

Winning margin

Gyeongju Citizen wins by 2+
11%
Chuncheon wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Gyeongju Citizen 1+ goals
64%
Gyeongju Citizen 2+ goals
27%
Gyeongju Citizen 3+ goals
8%
Chuncheon 1+ goals
72%
Chuncheon 2+ goals
36%
Chuncheon 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Gyeongju Citizen (draw refunded)
42%
Chuncheon (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyeongju Citizen at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Chuncheon away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.44 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyeongju Citizen attack 0.60 + Chuncheon defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.02

Chuncheon attack 0.92 + Gyeongju Citizen defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gyeongju Citizen scores more
30%
level
28%
Chuncheon scores more
42%

Chuncheon at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chuncheon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gyeongju Citizen vs Chuncheon

Gyeongju Citizen beat Chuncheon 1-0 in K3 League on May 30, 2020.

The match was played at Gyeongju Citizen Stadium in Gyeongju.