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Chuncheon vs Gyeongju Citizen — K3 League 2026

Chuncheon
Chuncheon
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Gyeongju Citizen
Gyeongju Citizen
10/31/2020K3 LeagueK3 League · Relegation Round - 7Chuncheon Songam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Chuncheon45%
×Draw26%
Gyeongju Citizen29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chuncheon
1.46
Gyeongju Citizen
1.13

Chuncheon creates 29% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 12 away

creates per match

Chuncheon
1.25
Gyeongju Citizen
0.83

allows per match

Chuncheon
1.42
Gyeongju Citizen
1.67

finishing

Chuncheon+0.00on par
Gyeongju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chuncheon ↓

Gyeongju Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Chuncheon or draw
71%
Chuncheon or Gyeongju Citizen
74%
Draw or Gyeongju Citizen
55%

Winning margin

Chuncheon wins by 2+
22%
Gyeongju Citizen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chuncheon 1+ goals
77%
Chuncheon 2+ goals
43%
Chuncheon 3+ goals
18%
Gyeongju Citizen 1+ goals
68%
Gyeongju Citizen 2+ goals
31%
Gyeongju Citizen 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chuncheon (draw refunded)
60%
Gyeongju Citizen (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chuncheon at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 52 matches

Gyeongju Citizen away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chuncheon attack 1.25 + Gyeongju Citizen defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Gyeongju Citizen attack 0.83 + Chuncheon defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chuncheon scores more
45%
level
26%
Gyeongju Citizen scores more
29%

Chuncheon at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chuncheon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K3 League: Chuncheon 1–2 Gyeongju Citizen

Gyeongju Citizen beat Chuncheon 2-1 in K3 League on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium in Chuncheon.