Gyeongju Citizen 0–1 Cheonan City: Result & Stats

Gyeongju Citizen

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cheonan City

9/20/2020

K3 League · Relegation Round - 2Gyeongju Citizen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Gyeongju Citizen22%

×Draw27%

Cheonan City51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gyeongju CitizenExpected goals in this matchCheonan City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.84

1.44

Gyeongju Citizen

0.84

Cheonan City

1.44

Cheonan City creates 71% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 71 away

0.60

creates per match

1.28

1.60

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Gyeongju Citizen

0.60

Cheonan City

1.28

allows per match

Gyeongju Citizen

1.60

Cheonan City

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gyeongju Citizen+0.00on par

Cheonan City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyeongju Citizen ↓

Cheonan City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–115%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Gyeongju Citizen or draw

49%

Gyeongju Citizen or Cheonan City

73%

Draw or Cheonan City

78%

Winning margin

Gyeongju Citizen wins by 2+

7%

Cheonan City wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Gyeongju Citizen 1+ goals

57%

Gyeongju Citizen 2+ goals

21%

Gyeongju Citizen 3+ goals

5%

Cheonan City 1+ goals

76%

Cheonan City 2+ goals

42%

Cheonan City 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Gyeongju Citizen (draw refunded)

30%

Cheonan City (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyeongju Citizen at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Cheonan City away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.08 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyeongju Citizen attack 0.60 + Cheonan City defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.84

Cheonan City attack 1.28 + Gyeongju Citizen defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Gyeongju Citizen scores more

22%

level

27%

Cheonan City scores more

51%

Cheonan City at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cheonan City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff