Cheonan City 2–0 Gyeongju Citizen: Result & Stats

Cheonan City

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Gyeongju Citizen

6/27/2020

K3 League · Round 6Chonan Soccer Center Main Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Cheonan City48%

×Draw26%

Gyeongju Citizen25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cheonan CityExpected goals in this matchGyeongju Citizen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.98

Cheonan City

1.47

Gyeongju Citizen

0.98

Cheonan City creates 50% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 12 away

1.27

creates per match

0.83

1.14

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Cheonan City

1.27

Gyeongju Citizen

0.83

allows per match

Cheonan City

1.14

Gyeongju Citizen

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cheonan City+0.00on par

Gyeongju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheonan City ↓

Gyeongju Citizen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cheonan City or draw

75%

Cheonan City or Gyeongju Citizen

74%

Draw or Gyeongju Citizen

52%

Winning margin

Cheonan City wins by 2+

24%

Gyeongju Citizen wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Cheonan City 1+ goals

77%

Cheonan City 2+ goals

43%

Cheonan City 3+ goals

18%

Gyeongju Citizen 1+ goals

62%

Gyeongju Citizen 2+ goals

26%

Gyeongju Citizen 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cheonan City (draw refunded)

66%

Gyeongju Citizen (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheonan City at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.14 · 74 matches

Gyeongju Citizen away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheonan City attack 1.27 + Gyeongju Citizen defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.47

Gyeongju Citizen attack 0.83 + Cheonan City defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cheonan City scores more

48%

level

26%

Gyeongju Citizen scores more

25%

Cheonan City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cheonan City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff