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Gwelup Croatia vs Gosnells City — Western Australia State League 1 2026

Gwelup Croatia
Gwelup Croatia
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Gosnells City
Gosnells City
3/29/2025Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 2Croatian Sporting Complex A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Gwelup Croatia53%
×Draw21%
Gosnells City26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwelup Croatia
2.12
Gosnells City
1.46

Gwelup Croatia creates 45% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 22 away

creates per match

Gwelup Croatia
1.97
Gosnells City
0.91

allows per match

Gwelup Croatia
2.00
Gosnells City
2.27

finishing

Gwelup Croatia+0.00on par
Gosnells City+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwelup Croatia ↓

Gosnells City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Gwelup Croatia or draw
74%
Gwelup Croatia or Gosnells City
79%
Draw or Gosnells City
47%

Winning margin

Gwelup Croatia wins by 2+
31%
Gosnells City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gwelup Croatia 1+ goals
88%
Gwelup Croatia 2+ goals
62%
Gwelup Croatia 3+ goals
35%
Gosnells City 1+ goals
77%
Gosnells City 2+ goals
43%
Gosnells City 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Gwelup Croatia (draw refunded)
66%
Gosnells City (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwelup Croatia at home — creates 1.97, concedes 2.00 · 31 matches

Gosnells City away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwelup Croatia attack 1.97 + Gosnells City defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.12

Gosnells City attack 0.91 + Gwelup Croatia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gwelup Croatia scores more
53%
level
21%
Gosnells City scores more
26%

Gwelup Croatia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gwelup Croatia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia State League 1: Gwelup Croatia 4–0 Gosnells City

Gwelup Croatia beat Gosnells City 4-0 in Western Australia State League 1 on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Croatian Sporting Complex A in Gwelup.