Gosnells City 4–0 Gwelup Croatia: Result & Stats

Gosnells City

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Gwelup Croatia

6/29/2024

Western Australia State League 1 · Round 13Walter Padbury Reserve A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Gosnells City32%

×Draw21%

Gwelup Croatia47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gosnells CityExpected goals in this matchGwelup Croatia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

2.05

Gosnells City

1.67

Gwelup Croatia

2.05

Gwelup Croatia creates 23% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 29 away

1.23

creates per match

1.69

2.41

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Gosnells City

1.23

Gwelup Croatia

1.69

allows per match

Gosnells City

2.41

Gwelup Croatia

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gosnells City+0.00on par

Gwelup Croatia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gosnells City ↓

Gwelup Croatia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Gosnells City or draw

53%

Gosnells City or Gwelup Croatia

79%

Draw or Gwelup Croatia

68%

Winning margin

Gosnells City wins by 2+

16%

Gwelup Croatia wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Gosnells City 1+ goals

81%

Gosnells City 2+ goals

50%

Gosnells City 3+ goals

23%

Gwelup Croatia 1+ goals

87%

Gwelup Croatia 2+ goals

61%

Gwelup Croatia 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Gosnells City (draw refunded)

41%

Gwelup Croatia (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gosnells City at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.41 · 22 matches

Gwelup Croatia away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.10 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gosnells City attack 1.23 + Gwelup Croatia defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.67

Gwelup Croatia attack 1.69 + Gosnells City defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gosnells City scores more

32%

level

21%

Gwelup Croatia scores more

47%

Gwelup Croatia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gwelup Croatia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff