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Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry vs Górnik Zabrze II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
FT
1 – 2
Górnik Zabrze II
Górnik Zabrze II
5/27/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 31Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry39%
×Draw24%
Górnik Zabrze II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.62
Górnik Zabrze II
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 103 away

creates per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.49
Górnik Zabrze II
1.70

allows per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.45
Górnik Zabrze II
1.75

finishing

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par
Górnik Zabrze II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry ↓

Górnik Zabrze II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or draw
63%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or Górnik Zabrze II
76%
Draw or Górnik Zabrze II
61%

Winning margin

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
20%
Górnik Zabrze II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
80%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
48%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
22%
Górnik Zabrze II 1+ goals
79%
Górnik Zabrze II 2+ goals
46%
Górnik Zabrze II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
51%
Górnik Zabrze II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

Górnik Zabrze II away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.75 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.49 + Górnik Zabrze II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.62

Górnik Zabrze II attack 1.70 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
39%
level
24%
Górnik Zabrze II scores more
37%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1–2 Górnik Zabrze II

Górnik Zabrze II beat Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek in Tarnowskie Góry.