Górnik Zabrze II 1–0 Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Górnik Zabrze II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

M. Wodecki 80'

9/13/2023

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 7Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Górnik Zabrze II49%

×Draw23%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik Zabrze IIExpected goals in this matchGwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.32

Górnik Zabrze II

1.81

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.32

Górnik Zabrze II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 69 away

1.79

creates per match

1.39

1.25

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Górnik Zabrze II

1.79

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.39

allows per match

Górnik Zabrze II

1.25

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Zabrze II+0.00on par

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Zabrze II ↓

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Górnik Zabrze II or draw

72%

Górnik Zabrze II or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

77%

Draw or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

51%

Winning margin

Górnik Zabrze II wins by 2+

27%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Górnik Zabrze II 1+ goals

84%

Górnik Zabrze II 2+ goals

54%

Górnik Zabrze II 3+ goals

27%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals

73%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals

38%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Górnik Zabrze II (draw refunded)

64%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Zabrze II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.25 · 102 matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Zabrze II attack 1.79 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.81

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.39 + Górnik Zabrze II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Górnik Zabrze II scores more

49%

level

23%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more

28%

Górnik Zabrze II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Górnik Zabrze II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

80'

M. Wodecki

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff