Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3–1 Gać Oława

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Gać Oława

4/30/2022

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 27Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry56%

×Draw21%

Gać Oława23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gwarek Tarnowskie GóryExpected goals in this matchGać Oława

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

1.23

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

2.03

Gać Oława

1.23

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry creates 65% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 35 away

1.49

creates per match

1.00

1.45

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.49

Gać Oława

1.00

allows per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.45

Gać Oława

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par

Gać Oława+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry ↓

Gać Oława →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or draw

77%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or Gać Oława

79%

Draw or Gać Oława

44%

Winning margin

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+

33%

Gać Oława wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals

87%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals

60%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals

33%

Gać Oława 1+ goals

71%

Gać Oława 2+ goals

35%

Gać Oława 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)

71%

Gać Oława (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

Gać Oława away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.57 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.49 + Gać Oława defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.03

Gać Oława attack 1.00 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more

56%

level

21%

Gać Oława scores more

23%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff