Gać Oława 0–0 Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Gać Oława

FT

0 – 0

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

9/25/2021

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 10Stadion w Gaciu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Gać Oława34%

×Draw23%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gać OławaExpected goals in this matchGwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.81

Gać Oława

1.56

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.81

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry creates 16% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 69 away

1.29

creates per match

1.39

2.23

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Gać Oława

1.29

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.39

allows per match

Gać Oława

2.23

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gać Oława+0.00on par

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gać Oława ↓

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Gać Oława or draw

56%

Gać Oława or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

77%

Draw or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

66%

Winning margin

Gać Oława wins by 2+

16%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Gać Oława 1+ goals

79%

Gać Oława 2+ goals

46%

Gać Oława 3+ goals

21%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals

84%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals

54%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Gać Oława (draw refunded)

43%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gać Oława at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.23 · 35 matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gać Oława attack 1.29 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.56

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.39 + Gać Oława defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gać Oława scores more

34%

level

23%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more

44%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff