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Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry vs Chrobry Głogów II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Chrobry Głogów II
Chrobry Głogów II
J. Siga 71'
T. Wojciechowski 39'
10/22/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 13Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry43%
×Draw26%
Chrobry Głogów II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.48
Chrobry Głogów II
1.23

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry creates 20% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 17 away

creates per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.49
Chrobry Głogów II
1.00

allows per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.45
Chrobry Głogów II
1.47

finishing

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par
Chrobry Głogów II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry ↓

Chrobry Głogów II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or draw
68%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or Chrobry Głogów II
74%
Draw or Chrobry Głogów II
57%

Winning margin

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
21%
Chrobry Głogów II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
77%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
43%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
19%
Chrobry Głogów II 1+ goals
71%
Chrobry Głogów II 2+ goals
35%
Chrobry Głogów II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
58%
Chrobry Głogów II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

Chrobry Głogów II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.49 + Chrobry Głogów II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.48

Chrobry Głogów II attack 1.00 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
43%
level
26%
Chrobry Głogów II scores more
32%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
T. Wojciechowski
71'
J. Siga

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry vs Chrobry Głogów II

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry and Chrobry Głogów II drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on October 22, 2022.

Goals: T. Wojciechowski (39'), J. Siga (71').

The match was played at Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek in Tarnowskie Góry.