Chrobry Głogów II 0–3 Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Chrobry Głogów II

FT

0 – 3

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

5/24/2023

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 30MZKS Głogów Boisko piłkarskie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chrobry Głogów II32%

×Draw21%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chrobry Głogów IIExpected goals in this matchGwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

2.02

Chrobry Głogów II

1.66

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

2.02

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry creates 22% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 69 away

1.47

creates per match

1.39

2.65

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów II

1.47

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.39

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów II

2.65

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chrobry Głogów II+0.00on par

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów II ↓

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów II or draw

54%

Chrobry Głogów II or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

79%

Draw or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

68%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów II wins by 2+

16%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów II 1+ goals

81%

Chrobry Głogów II 2+ goals

49%

Chrobry Głogów II 3+ goals

23%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals

87%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals

60%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów II (draw refunded)

41%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów II attack 1.47 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.66

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.39 + Chrobry Głogów II defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chrobry Głogów II scores more

32%

level

21%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more

46%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff