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Gwardia Koszalin vs Flota Świnoujście — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Gwardia Koszalin
Gwardia Koszalin
FT
1 – 2
Flota Świnoujście
Flota Świnoujście
5/8/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 27Stadion im. Stanisława Figasa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gwardia Koszalin33%
×Draw25%
Flota Świnoujście43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwardia Koszalin
1.34
Flota Świnoujście
1.57

Flota Świnoujście creates 17% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Gwardia Koszalin
1.12
Flota Świnoujście
1.38

allows per match

Gwardia Koszalin
1.76
Flota Świnoujście
1.56

finishing

Gwardia Koszalin+0.00on par
Flota Świnoujście+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwardia Koszalin ↓

Flota Świnoujście →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gwardia Koszalin or draw
57%
Gwardia Koszalin or Flota Świnoujście
75%
Draw or Flota Świnoujście
67%

Winning margin

Gwardia Koszalin wins by 2+
14%
Flota Świnoujście wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Gwardia Koszalin 1+ goals
74%
Gwardia Koszalin 2+ goals
39%
Gwardia Koszalin 3+ goals
15%
Flota Świnoujście 1+ goals
79%
Flota Świnoujście 2+ goals
46%
Flota Świnoujście 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Gwardia Koszalin (draw refunded)
43%
Flota Świnoujście (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwardia Koszalin at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Flota Świnoujście away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwardia Koszalin attack 1.12 + Flota Świnoujście defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.34

Flota Świnoujście attack 1.38 + Gwardia Koszalin defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gwardia Koszalin scores more
33%
level
25%
Flota Świnoujście scores more
43%

Flota Świnoujście at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Flota Świnoujście will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Gwardia Koszalin 1–2 Flota Świnoujście

Flota Świnoujście beat Gwardia Koszalin 2-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion im. Stanisława Figasa in Koszalin.