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Flota Świnoujście vs Gwardia Koszalin — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Flota Świnoujście
Flota Świnoujście
FT
1 – 2
Gwardia Koszalin
Gwardia Koszalin
12/5/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Flota Świnoujście33%
×Draw25%
Gwardia Koszalin42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flota Świnoujście
1.34
Gwardia Koszalin
1.54

Gwardia Koszalin creates 15% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Flota Świnoujście
1.40
Gwardia Koszalin
1.35

allows per match

Flota Świnoujście
1.72
Gwardia Koszalin
1.29

finishing

Flota Świnoujście+0.00on par
Gwardia Koszalin+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flota Świnoujście ↓

Gwardia Koszalin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Flota Świnoujście or draw
58%
Flota Świnoujście or Gwardia Koszalin
75%
Draw or Gwardia Koszalin
67%

Winning margin

Flota Świnoujście wins by 2+
15%
Gwardia Koszalin wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Flota Świnoujście 1+ goals
74%
Flota Świnoujście 2+ goals
39%
Flota Świnoujście 3+ goals
15%
Gwardia Koszalin 1+ goals
79%
Gwardia Koszalin 2+ goals
45%
Gwardia Koszalin 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Flota Świnoujście (draw refunded)
44%
Gwardia Koszalin (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flota Świnoujście at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.72 · 68 matches

Gwardia Koszalin away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flota Świnoujście attack 1.40 + Gwardia Koszalin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Gwardia Koszalin attack 1.35 + Flota Świnoujście defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Flota Świnoujście scores more
33%
level
25%
Gwardia Koszalin scores more
42%

Gwardia Koszalin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gwardia Koszalin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Flota Świnoujście 1–2 Gwardia Koszalin

Gwardia Koszalin beat Flota Świnoujście 2-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on December 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Świnoujście.