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Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC — K League 1 2026

Gwangju FC
Gwangju FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Daegu FC
Daegu FC
4/9/2025K League 1K League 1 · Round 10Gwangju Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Gwangju FC40%
×Draw27%
Daegu FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwangju FC
1.32
Daegu FC
1.19

Gwangju FC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 149 away

creates per match

Gwangju FC
1.18
Daegu FC
1.16

allows per match

Gwangju FC
1.22
Daegu FC
1.46

finishing

Gwangju FC+0.00on par
Daegu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwangju FC ↓

Daegu FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Gwangju FC or draw
67%
Gwangju FC or Daegu FC
73%
Draw or Daegu FC
60%

Winning margin

Gwangju FC wins by 2+
18%
Daegu FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gwangju FC 1+ goals
73%
Gwangju FC 2+ goals
38%
Gwangju FC 3+ goals
15%
Daegu FC 1+ goals
70%
Daegu FC 2+ goals
33%
Daegu FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gwangju FC (draw refunded)
54%
Daegu FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwangju FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.22 · 99 matches

Daegu FC away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.46 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwangju FC attack 1.18 + Daegu FC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.32

Daegu FC attack 1.16 + Gwangju FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gwangju FC scores more
40%
level
27%
Daegu FC scores more
33%

Gwangju FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gwangju FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 1: Gwangju FC 2–1 Daegu FC

Gwangju FC beat Daegu FC 2-1 in K League 1 on April 9, 2025.

The match was played at Gwangju Football Stadium in Gwangju.