Daegu FC 1–0 Gwangju FC: Result & Stats

Daegu FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gwangju FC

11/8/2025

K League 1 · Relegation Group - 36DGB Daegu Bank Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Daegu FC43%

×Draw27%

Gwangju FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Daegu FCExpected goals in this matchGwangju FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.14

Daegu FC

1.40

Gwangju FC

1.14

Daegu FC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 97 away

1.33

creates per match

0.98

1.29

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Daegu FC

1.33

Gwangju FC

0.98

allows per match

Daegu FC

1.29

Gwangju FC

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Daegu FC+0.00on par

Gwangju FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daegu FC ↓

Gwangju FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Daegu FC or draw

69%

Daegu FC or Gwangju FC

73%

Draw or Gwangju FC

57%

Winning margin

Daegu FC wins by 2+

20%

Gwangju FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Daegu FC 1+ goals

75%

Daegu FC 2+ goals

41%

Daegu FC 3+ goals

17%

Gwangju FC 1+ goals

68%

Gwangju FC 2+ goals

32%

Gwangju FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Daegu FC (draw refunded)

58%

Gwangju FC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daegu FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 145 matches

Gwangju FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.47 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daegu FC attack 1.33 + Gwangju FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.40

Gwangju FC attack 0.98 + Daegu FC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Daegu FC scores more

43%

level

27%

Gwangju FC scores more

31%

Daegu FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Daegu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff