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Gwambina vs Dodoma Jiji — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Gwambina
Gwambina
FT
2 – 0
Dodoma Jiji
Dodoma Jiji
6/23/2021Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 29Gwambina Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gwambina48%
×Draw31%
Dodoma Jiji21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwambina
1.15
Dodoma Jiji
0.66

Gwambina creates 74% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 92 away

creates per match

Gwambina
0.76
Dodoma Jiji
0.67

allows per match

Gwambina
0.65
Dodoma Jiji
1.54

finishing

Gwambina+0.00on par
Dodoma Jiji+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwambina ↓

Dodoma Jiji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Gwambina or draw
79%
Gwambina or Dodoma Jiji
69%
Draw or Dodoma Jiji
52%

Winning margin

Gwambina wins by 2+
21%
Dodoma Jiji wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gwambina 1+ goals
68%
Gwambina 2+ goals
32%
Gwambina 3+ goals
11%
Dodoma Jiji 1+ goals
48%
Dodoma Jiji 2+ goals
14%
Dodoma Jiji 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Gwambina (draw refunded)
69%
Dodoma Jiji (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwambina at home — creates 0.76, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Dodoma Jiji away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.54 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwambina attack 0.76 + Dodoma Jiji defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.15

Dodoma Jiji attack 0.67 + Gwambina defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gwambina scores more
48%
level
31%
Dodoma Jiji scores more
21%

Gwambina at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gwambina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gwambina vs Dodoma Jiji

Gwambina beat Dodoma Jiji 2-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on June 23, 2021.

The match was played at Gwambina Stadium in Misungwi.