Dodoma Jiji 1–0 Gwambina: Result & Stats

Dodoma Jiji

FT

1 – 0

Gwambina

12/12/2020

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 13Jamhuri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dodoma Jiji45%

×Draw29%

Gwambina26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dodoma JijiExpected goals in this matchGwambina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.90

Dodoma Jiji

1.27

Gwambina

0.90

Dodoma Jiji creates 41% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 17 away

1.01

creates per match

0.94

0.85

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Dodoma Jiji

1.01

Gwambina

0.94

allows per match

Dodoma Jiji

0.85

Gwambina

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dodoma Jiji+0.00on par

Gwambina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dodoma Jiji ↓

Gwambina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Dodoma Jiji or draw

74%

Dodoma Jiji or Gwambina

71%

Draw or Gwambina

55%

Winning margin

Dodoma Jiji wins by 2+

20%

Gwambina wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dodoma Jiji 1+ goals

72%

Dodoma Jiji 2+ goals

36%

Dodoma Jiji 3+ goals

14%

Gwambina 1+ goals

59%

Gwambina 2+ goals

23%

Gwambina 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Dodoma Jiji (draw refunded)

63%

Gwambina (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dodoma Jiji at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.85 · 91 matches

Gwambina away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dodoma Jiji attack 1.01 + Gwambina defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Gwambina attack 0.94 + Dodoma Jiji defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dodoma Jiji scores more

45%

level

29%

Gwambina scores more

26%

Dodoma Jiji at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dodoma Jiji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff