Gwambina 0–1 Biashara United: Result & Stats

Gwambina

FT

0 – 1

Biashara United

1/3/2021

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 16CCM Kirumba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gwambina43%

×Draw35%

Biashara United22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GwambinaExpected goals in this matchBiashara United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

0.61

Gwambina

0.98

Biashara United

0.61

Gwambina creates 61% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

0.76

creates per match

0.57

0.65

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Gwambina

0.76

Biashara United

0.57

allows per match

Gwambina

0.65

Biashara United

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gwambina+0.00on par

Biashara United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under79
Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwambina ↓

Biashara United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

47%53%2.5

21%79%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Gwambina or draw

78%

Gwambina or Biashara United

65%

Draw or Biashara United

57%

Winning margin

Gwambina wins by 2+

17%

Biashara United wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Gwambina 1+ goals

62%

Gwambina 2+ goals

26%

Gwambina 3+ goals

8%

Biashara United 1+ goals

46%

Biashara United 2+ goals

13%

Biashara United 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Gwambina (draw refunded)

66%

Biashara United (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwambina at home — creates 0.76, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Biashara United away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.20 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwambina attack 0.76 + Biashara United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.98

Biashara United attack 0.57 + Gwambina defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gwambina scores more

43%

level

35%

Biashara United scores more

22%

Gwambina at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gwambina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff