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Biashara United vs Gwambina — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Biashara United
Biashara United
FT
1 – 0
Gwambina
Gwambina
K. Friday 88'
9/6/2020Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 1Karume Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Biashara United48%
×Draw29%
Gwambina23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Biashara United
1.27
Gwambina
0.79

Biashara United creates 61% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Biashara United
1.00
Gwambina
0.94

allows per match

Biashara United
0.65
Gwambina
1.53

finishing

Biashara United+0.00on par
Gwambina+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biashara United ↓

Gwambina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Biashara United or draw
77%
Biashara United or Gwambina
71%
Draw or Gwambina
52%

Winning margin

Biashara United wins by 2+
22%
Gwambina wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Biashara United 1+ goals
72%
Biashara United 2+ goals
36%
Biashara United 3+ goals
14%
Gwambina 1+ goals
55%
Gwambina 2+ goals
19%
Gwambina 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Biashara United (draw refunded)
67%
Gwambina (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biashara United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.65 · 51 matches

Gwambina away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biashara United attack 1.00 + Gwambina defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Gwambina attack 0.94 + Biashara United defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Biashara United scores more
48%
level
29%
Gwambina scores more
23%

Biashara United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Biashara United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

88'
K. Friday

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Biashara United 1–0 Gwambina

Biashara United beat Gwambina 1-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on September 6, 2020.

Goals: K. Friday (88').

The match was played at Karume Football Stadium in Musoma.