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GVV Unitas vs Groene Ster — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

GVV Unitas
GVV Unitas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Groene Ster
Groene Ster
1/28/2024Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 20Sportpark Molenvliet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

GVV Unitas46%
×Draw25%
Groene Ster29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GVV Unitas
1.57
Groene Ster
1.20

GVV Unitas creates 31% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 81 away

creates per match

GVV Unitas
1.31
Groene Ster
0.94

allows per match

GVV Unitas
1.46
Groene Ster
1.83

finishing

GVV Unitas+0.00on par
Groene Ster+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GVV Unitas ↓

Groene Ster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

GVV Unitas or draw
71%
GVV Unitas or Groene Ster
75%
Draw or Groene Ster
54%

Winning margin

GVV Unitas wins by 2+
23%
Groene Ster wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

GVV Unitas 1+ goals
79%
GVV Unitas 2+ goals
46%
GVV Unitas 3+ goals
21%
Groene Ster 1+ goals
70%
Groene Ster 2+ goals
34%
Groene Ster 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

GVV Unitas (draw refunded)
61%
Groene Ster (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GVV Unitas at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.46 · 54 matches

Groene Ster away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.83 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GVV Unitas attack 1.31 + Groene Ster defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.57

Groene Ster attack 0.94 + GVV Unitas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

GVV Unitas scores more
46%
level
25%
Groene Ster scores more
29%

GVV Unitas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "GVV Unitas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GVV Unitas vs Groene Ster

GVV Unitas beat Groene Ster 2-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on January 28, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Molenvliet in Gorinchem.