Groene Ster 1–2 GVV Unitas: Result & Stats

Groene Ster

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

GVV Unitas

4/16/2022

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 25Sportpark Pronsenbroek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Groene Ster47%

×Draw23%

GVV Unitas30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Groene SterExpected goals in this matchGVV Unitas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.39

Groene Ster

1.79

GVV Unitas

1.39

Groene Ster creates 29% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 54 away

1.52

creates per match

1.22

1.56

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Groene Ster

1.52

GVV Unitas

1.22

allows per match

Groene Ster

1.56

GVV Unitas

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Groene Ster+0.00on par

GVV Unitas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groene Ster ↓

GVV Unitas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Groene Ster or draw

70%

Groene Ster or GVV Unitas

77%

Draw or GVV Unitas

53%

Winning margin

Groene Ster wins by 2+

25%

GVV Unitas wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Groene Ster 1+ goals

83%

Groene Ster 2+ goals

53%

Groene Ster 3+ goals

26%

GVV Unitas 1+ goals

75%

GVV Unitas 2+ goals

40%

GVV Unitas 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Groene Ster (draw refunded)

61%

GVV Unitas (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groene Ster at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.56 · 82 matches

GVV Unitas away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groene Ster attack 1.52 + GVV Unitas defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.79

GVV Unitas attack 1.22 + Groene Ster defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Groene Ster scores more

47%

level

23%

GVV Unitas scores more

30%

Groene Ster at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Groene Ster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff