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GVV Unitas vs AWC — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

GVV Unitas
GVV Unitas
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
AWC
AWC
3/3/2024Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 24Sportpark Molenvliet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

GVV Unitas53%
×Draw23%
AWC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GVV Unitas
1.78
AWC
1.11

GVV Unitas creates 60% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 17 away

creates per match

GVV Unitas
1.31
AWC
0.76

allows per match

GVV Unitas
1.46
AWC
2.24

finishing

GVV Unitas+0.00on par
AWC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GVV Unitas ↓

AWC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

GVV Unitas or draw
76%
GVV Unitas or AWC
77%
Draw or AWC
47%

Winning margin

GVV Unitas wins by 2+
29%
AWC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

GVV Unitas 1+ goals
83%
GVV Unitas 2+ goals
53%
GVV Unitas 3+ goals
26%
AWC 1+ goals
67%
AWC 2+ goals
30%
AWC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

GVV Unitas (draw refunded)
69%
AWC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GVV Unitas at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.46 · 54 matches

AWC away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GVV Unitas attack 1.31 + AWC defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.78

AWC attack 0.76 + GVV Unitas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

GVV Unitas scores more
53%
level
23%
AWC scores more
24%

GVV Unitas at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "GVV Unitas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: GVV Unitas 4–1 AWC

GVV Unitas beat AWC 4-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Molenvliet in Gorinchem.