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AWC vs GVV Unitas — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

AWC
AWC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
GVV Unitas
GVV Unitas
10/1/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 7Sportpark De Wijchert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

AWC38%
×Draw25%
GVV Unitas37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AWC
1.47
GVV Unitas
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 54 away

creates per match

AWC
0.88
GVV Unitas
1.22

allows per match

AWC
1.65
GVV Unitas
2.06

finishing

AWC+0.00on par
GVV Unitas+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AWC ↓

GVV Unitas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

AWC or draw
63%
AWC or GVV Unitas
75%
Draw or GVV Unitas
62%

Winning margin

AWC wins by 2+
18%
GVV Unitas wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

AWC 1+ goals
77%
AWC 2+ goals
43%
AWC 3+ goals
18%
GVV Unitas 1+ goals
76%
GVV Unitas 2+ goals
42%
GVV Unitas 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

AWC (draw refunded)
51%
GVV Unitas (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AWC at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

GVV Unitas away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AWC attack 0.88 + GVV Unitas defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.47

GVV Unitas attack 1.22 + AWC defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

AWC scores more
38%
level
25%
GVV Unitas scores more
37%

AWC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "AWC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AWC 2 – 0 GVV Unitas

AWC beat GVV Unitas 2-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark De Wijchert in Wijchen.