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GVV Unitas vs ADO '20 — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

GVV Unitas
GVV Unitas
FT
1 – 0
ADO '20
ADO '20
10/3/2021Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 7Sportpark Molenvliet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

GVV Unitas33%
×Draw24%
ADO '2042%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GVV Unitas
1.38
ADO '20
1.58

ADO '20 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 48 away

creates per match

GVV Unitas
1.31
ADO '20
1.71

allows per match

GVV Unitas
1.46
ADO '20
1.44

finishing

GVV Unitas+0.00on par
ADO '20+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GVV Unitas ↓

ADO '20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

GVV Unitas or draw
58%
GVV Unitas or ADO '20
76%
Draw or ADO '20
67%

Winning margin

GVV Unitas wins by 2+
15%
ADO '20 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

GVV Unitas 1+ goals
75%
GVV Unitas 2+ goals
40%
GVV Unitas 3+ goals
16%
ADO '20 1+ goals
79%
ADO '20 2+ goals
47%
ADO '20 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

GVV Unitas (draw refunded)
44%
ADO '20 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GVV Unitas at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.46 · 54 matches

ADO '20 away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.44 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GVV Unitas attack 1.31 + ADO '20 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.38

ADO '20 attack 1.71 + GVV Unitas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

GVV Unitas scores more
33%
level
24%
ADO '20 scores more
42%

ADO '20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "ADO '20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GVV Unitas vs ADO '20

GVV Unitas beat ADO '20 1-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Sportpark Molenvliet in Gorinchem.