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ADO '20 vs GVV Unitas — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

ADO '20
ADO '20
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
GVV Unitas
GVV Unitas
4/2/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 27Sportpark De Vlotter veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

ADO '2059%
×Draw21%
GVV Unitas21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADO '20
2.15
GVV Unitas
1.21

ADO '20 creates 78% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 54 away

creates per match

ADO '20
2.23
GVV Unitas
1.22

allows per match

ADO '20
1.19
GVV Unitas
2.06

finishing

ADO '20+0.00on par
GVV Unitas+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO '20 ↓

GVV Unitas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

ADO '20 or draw
79%
ADO '20 or GVV Unitas
79%
Draw or GVV Unitas
41%

Winning margin

ADO '20 wins by 2+
36%
GVV Unitas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

ADO '20 1+ goals
88%
ADO '20 2+ goals
63%
ADO '20 3+ goals
36%
GVV Unitas 1+ goals
70%
GVV Unitas 2+ goals
34%
GVV Unitas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

ADO '20 (draw refunded)
74%
GVV Unitas (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO '20 at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

GVV Unitas away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO '20 attack 2.23 + GVV Unitas defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.15

GVV Unitas attack 1.22 + ADO '20 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

ADO '20 scores more
59%
level
21%
GVV Unitas scores more
21%

ADO '20 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "ADO '20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: ADO '20 3–0 GVV Unitas

ADO '20 beat GVV Unitas 3-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark De Vlotter veld 1 in Heemskerk.