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Güzide Gebzespor vs Fethiyespor — League #205 2026

Güzide Gebzespor
Güzide Gebzespor
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Fethiyespor
Fethiyespor
B. Altintas 63'
U. Ayhan 84'
M. Okutan 45+2'
4/12/2026League #205League #205 · Kırmızı - 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Güzide Gebzespor58%
×Draw21%
Fethiyespor21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Güzide Gebzespor
2.02
Fethiyespor
1.13

Güzide Gebzespor creates 79% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 3 away

creates per match

Güzide Gebzespor
1.71
Fethiyespor
1.33

allows per match

Güzide Gebzespor
0.92
Fethiyespor
2.33

finishing

Güzide Gebzespor+0.00on par
Fethiyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Güzide Gebzespor ↓

Fethiyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Güzide Gebzespor or draw
79%
Güzide Gebzespor or Fethiyespor
79%
Draw or Fethiyespor
42%

Winning margin

Güzide Gebzespor wins by 2+
35%
Fethiyespor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Güzide Gebzespor 1+ goals
87%
Güzide Gebzespor 2+ goals
60%
Güzide Gebzespor 3+ goals
33%
Fethiyespor 1+ goals
68%
Fethiyespor 2+ goals
31%
Fethiyespor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Güzide Gebzespor (draw refunded)
73%
Fethiyespor (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Güzide Gebzespor at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.92 · 24 matches

Fethiyespor away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Güzide Gebzespor attack 1.71 + Fethiyespor defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.02

Fethiyespor attack 1.33 + Güzide Gebzespor defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Güzide Gebzespor scores more
58%
level
21%
Fethiyespor scores more
21%

Güzide Gebzespor at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Güzide Gebzespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'
M. Okutan↳ U. Ayhan
63'
B. Altintas↳ K. Kanak
84'
U. Ayhan↳ B. Satir
86'
A. Dogan
90+1'
C. Temel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #205: Güzide Gebzespor 1–2 Fethiyespor

Fethiyespor beat Güzide Gebzespor 2-1 in League #205 on April 12, 2026.

Goals: M. Okutan (45+2'), B. Altintas (63'), U. Ayhan (84').